Sunday, November 11, 2012

M & M's NFL Pickz Week 10 - Sunday Edition

By Marley Burr (@MarleyBurr), Mitch Sandberg, Ernest Bove 

Hello again Broz and Ladies. After a few complications in the last couple weeks due to some writers lacking picks (TAK COUGH COUGH) and then complications due to vacations now we can finally return to the normal format of the NFL weekly picks. The Guest of the Week this week is going to be my friend and roommate, Ernest Bove, another New England Patriots fan. Right now the race is close with Marley in the lead at 69-58-4 and guest of the week trailing close in second with 64-63-4. Marley has been on a serious roll lately going 22-6 in the last two weeks with his picks. Let's see if he can keep his hot hand going in Week 10 with a correct TNF call.


Current Standings:


Week
Marley
Mitch
Guest
Guest Name
1
8-8
5-11
8-8
-
2
5-9-2
5-9-2
7-7-2
Danny Klau
3
6-9-1
6-9-1
6-9-1
Chris Krukowski
4
9-6
9-6
8-7
Nick Perez
5
9-5
6-8
8-6
Adam Maher
6
5-9
5-9
4-10
Jason Klau
7
6-6-1
5-7-1
8-4-1
Alex Cohen-Smith
8
11-3
5-9
7-7
Takeshi Okoshi
9
11-3
7-7
9-5
Danny Klau
10
0
0
0
Ernie Bove
Total
69-58-4
52-75-4
64-63-4


Player of the Week:



Doug Martin is getting the Player of the week for both Weeks 8 and 9. In those two weeks he has a combined 100 yards receiving, 386 rushing yards with six touchdowns. Those are some incredible numbers that have directly resulted into Ws for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Matchups and Spreads:

Away Team
Home Team
Favorite and Current
Spread
Original
Spread
Indianapolis
Colts
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
-3

-3
Buffalo
Bills
New England
Patriots
New England Patriots
-11

-11
New York
Giants
Cincinnati
Bengals
New York Giants
-4

-4
San Diego
Chargers
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-3

-3
Denver
Broncos
Carolina
Panthers
Denver Broncos
-4

-4
Tennessee
Titans
Miami
Dolphins
Miami Dolphins
-6

-6
Oakland
Raiders
Baltimore
Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
-7.5

-7.5
Detroit
Lions
Minnesota
Vikings
Detroit Lions
-1

-1
New York
Jets
Seattle
Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
-6

-6.5
St. Louis
Rams
San Francisco
49ers
San Francisco 49ers
-11

-11
Houston
Texans
Chicago
Bears
Chicago Bears
-1

-1
Dallas
Cowboys
Philadelphia
Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
-1
Eagles
-2.5
Atlanta
Falcons
New Orleans
Saints
Atlanta Falcons
-2.5

-3
Kansas City
Chiefs
Pittsburgh
Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
-11.5

-11.5




Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Marley: Patriots -11
Mitch: Patriots -11
Ernie: Patriots -11

Ernie: Pats finished a sub-par first half (5-3) on a high note with a solid win over a steadily improving St. Louis Rams squad. They should be rested coming off a bye week and looking start the second half off right. Bills have yet to find their swagger this year and despite big additions, most notably to their defensive line, they are still the same old Bills that have lost 17 out of their last 18 matchups with New England. No circling the wagons today as the Pats win easy at home.

New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals
Marley: Giants -4
Mitch: Giants -4
Ernie: Giants -4

Marley: I may have bet on the Giants last week but that still doesn’t mean that I am shocked by them dropping that game in the fourth quarter to the Steelers. This always has been a team that could do something like beat down the 49ers and then blow a 24 point lead to the Cowboys.

Eli Manning has been lacking for a few weeks now, but I am still giving him a pass
considering that he is the defending Super Bowl MVP and those games somehow
managed to end up in Ws. The Giants however, are not looking strong lately. They are a last minute 77 yard bomb to Cruz and a Dez Bryant fingertip away from being 0-3 in the last three weeks. Last week Eli threw for 125 yards with a fumble and interception, his worst performance in longer than I can remember.

That being said, this team is still a road warrior and I just don’t see them losing 2 in a row going into their bye week, at least not to the Bengals. The Bengals are not that great of a team and are having some major problems of their own with Dalton and co. I think that Eli might not perform extremely well this week either but as long as the defense gets it done, Andy Dalton will feel the pressure and he certainly is no Big Ben. I see the Giants getting a big W going into their desperately needed bye week.

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Marley: Bucs -3
Mitch: Bucs -3
Ernie: Bucs -3

Mitch: We all thought the Chargers had finally turned things around and gotten off to a strong start this year, yet it seems that they are reverting back to their normal habit of a bad start and win a few games toward the end of the season to make things interesting: except that is not going to happen this season.  This team will be lucky to finish above .500 this year.  The Buccaneers have looked great the past two weeks, especially the offense.  I see Philip Rivers making a couple of mistakes leading to some points for Tampa Bay and the Bucs taking the game by a touchdown at home. 

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Marley: Broncos -4
Mitch: Broncos -4
Ernie: Broncos -4

Ernie: The Panthers surprised me last week with their win over the Redskins.  Not to say that the Redskins are a great team, but I definitely expected a better game out of RG3 against a team that had come into that game 1-6.  Then again the Panthers had lost a couple close games against two of the best teams in the NFL, so maybe I should've expected more out of them.  The Broncos will be coming into this game on the heels on a three game winning streak and they're defense has looked much much better the past two game.  I expect the Denver D to be able to shut down the Carolina offense and for the Broncos to take this by over 10 points. 

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Marley: Dolphins -6
Mitch: Titans +6
Ernie: Dolphins +6

Ernie: Steadily improved play by Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins outmatch the reeling Titans who are coming off one of their most embarrassing losses in franchise history. Today's return of Jake Locker to the roster will have a minimal impact on the outcome.

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Marley: Ravens -7.5
Mitch: Raiders +7.5
Ernie: Raiders +7.5

Mitch: The Raiders come into this game playing decently, but took a step back last week with their loss to Tampa Bay.  The Oakland offense made far too many mistakes and every time that the Raiders thought that they were back in the game the offense would give the ball up.  It's not every day that a running back goes for over 250 yards and four touchdowns.  The Ravens haven't looked like the greatest team either since Ray Lewis went down a few weeks back, but they have found a way to pull games out and find themselves 6-2 against a not so great Raiders team at home.  Hard to call this one but I believe that if the Raiders do not turn the ball over they will stay in this game and lose but still cover.  It's all going to depend on the offense.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Marley: Lions -1
Mitch: Vikings +1
Ernie: Lions -1

Mitch: Adrian Peterson has played great the past three weeks, but the Vikings have only managed to win one of those games.  Apart from Peterson, Minnesota has had very little offense, with Christian Ponder not living up to expectations.  The Lions played well last week and have now won two games in a row, managing to put points on the board before the fourth quarter.  If the Lions can continue to play the way that they've played the past two weeks I think that they have a great chance of taking this game, yet my mind tells me that the Vikings defense will put enough pressure on Matt Stafford to force a few mistakes and take advantage of turnovers, eventually winning this one at home.

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Marley: Seahawks -6
Mitch: Seahawks -6
Ernie: Seahawks -6

Ernie: It's really hard to take the Jets seriously this year, or any year really as long as the faces of the franchise are Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez. With the Seahawks playing so well at home this year (4-0) hard to see this one going the Jets' way.

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Marley: 49ers -11
Mitch: 49ers -11
Ernie: Rams +11

Mitch: This one should be a laugher, but this season it seems that when the Niners get a couple of games under their belt they get a little too comfortable.  Then again Alex Smith did have his best game of the year last week, going 18 of 19 and throwing for three touchdowns. The Rams don't necessarily have the makeup of the teams that have beat San Francisco this season: the ability to put points on the board to go along with a stifling defense.  Thus, I expect the Niners to hold St. Louis to under ten points and for them to put up around 28 or so.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Marley: Texans +1
Mitch: Bears -1
Ernie: Texans +1

Ernie: Probably one of the hardest pick of the week. With both teams having great years and just 1 loss a piece at the midway point of the season I could see this game going either way. Much respect to the Bears defense but Matt Schaub is a gamer with a lot of talent behind him and should be able to handle the pressure. I see the Texans winning this one in a squeaker with a last minute field goal to put them over the top.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Marley: Cowboys -1
Mitch: Eagles +1
Ernie: Cowboys -1

Marley: Since the beginning of the season I have been calling out the Eagles for being and overrated team that somehow managed to escape with a few wins. For the last couple weeks finally things have caught up with the Eagles and while many people blame Vick and Andy Reid for these problems, the reality is that the Eagles are just not very good. Their amazing defense has been exploited week after week and the O-line is swiss cheese leaving Vick open to pressure on every pass. This week they go up against a Cowboys team who in reality are not as bad as their record dictates. They have had a run of bad luck but the way this team has been playing, they could have ended up with a few more wins if a bounce went their way instead. I think this week is the completing factor. The Cowboys are going to get a much needed win while the Eagles collapse will be complete with this home loss to a division rival. 

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Marley: Falcons -2.5
Mitch: Falcons -2.5
Ernie: Falcons -2.5

Marley: The Saints had a big win last week against the Eagles and now they are going up against the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Drew Brees post game comments made it seem like this team is ready to make a run and the Saints should not be counted out. The problem I see is that the Falcons are not the Eagles who the Saints just beat handily. The Falcons are undefeated for a reason, they have an extremely potent offense and they have a strong defense. When things best tough and they need a big stop or drive, they just find ways to win games and that is all that matters. Yes, playing in New Orleans is difficult and yes the Saints are always a hard matchup while Brees is out there. However, the Falcons are just too good of a team to drop this one and I see them winning by at least a field goal. 


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