Monday, November 19, 2012

M & M NFL Picks Week 11 - Thanksgiving Edition


By Marley Burr (@MarleyBurr)

Hello again Broz and Happy Thanksgiving! This week as it is Thanksgiving we will upload quick picks of all the games as well as descriptions for the Thanksgiving day games that are a little more in depth for all you gamblers out there. I hope that everyone has a wonderful holiday with friends and family and the best of luck with your picks. Well see you for week 13!

Current Standings:

Week
Marley
Mitch
Guest
Guest Name
1
8-8
5-11
8-8
-
2
5-9-2
5-9-2
7-7-2
Danny Klau
3
6-9-1
6-9-1
6-9-1
Chris Krukowski
4
9-6
9-6
8-7
Nick Perez
5
9-5
6-8
8-6
Adam Maher
6
5-9
5-9
4-10
Jason Klau
7
6-6-1
5-7-1
8-4-1
Alex Cohen-Smith
8
11-3
5-9
7-7
Takeshi Okoshi
9
11-3
7-7
9-5
Danny Klau
10
7-7
6-8
7-7
Ernie Bove
11
9-5
7-7
7-7
Eric Witters
12
0-0
0-0
0-0
Stefan Gerlicz
Total
86 - 70 - 4
66 - 90 - 4
79 - 77 - 4




Matt Schaub wins the honors for players of the week in week 11. He threw for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns this week completing 43 of 55 passes. 

Games:

Away Team
Home Team
Favorite and Current
Spread
Original
Spread
Houston
Texans
Detroit
Lions
Houston Texans
-3

-2.5
Washington
Redskins
Dalls
Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
-3

-3
New England
Patriots
New York
Jets
New England Patriots
-7

-6
Oakland
Raiders
Cincinnati
Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals
-9.5

-7
Pittsburgh
Steelers
Cleveland
Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
-1

Even
Buffalo
Bills
Indianapolis
Colts
Indianapolis Colts
-3

-3
Denver
Broncos
Kansas City
Chiefs
Denver Broncos
-10.5

-10
Tennessee
Titans
Jacksonville
Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
-3

-3
Atlanta
Falcons
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
Even


Even
Seattle
Seahawks
Miami
Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks
-3

-3
Baltimore
Ravens
San Diego
Chargers
Even

Even
San Francisco
49ers
New Orleans
Saints
San Francisco 49ers
-1

-1
St. Louis
Rams
Arizona
Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
-1

-1
Green Bay
Packers
New York
Giants
New York Giants
-2.5

-3
Carolina
Panthers
Philadelphia
Eagles
Carolina Panthers
-2.5

-2.5


Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions
Marley: Texans -3
Mitch: Texans -3
Stefan: Texans -3

The Houston Texans have not looked as dominant as they did before they lost Brian Cushing. Make no mistake the defense has suffered without him and games have been a lot closer which was evidenced this last week by escaping in OT with a W against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The good news is that the Texans are still one of the most dangerous teams in the game right now and their offense is extremely potent. You don’t want the game on the line with the ball in the hands of Matt Schaub when he has Andre Johnson and Arian Foster to give it to.

The Detroit Lions have been up and down all season and for the most part it has been a disappointment. There was a lot of talk of this team finally coming around and improving from their successful season last year. Sadly it just has not been the case. Right now they are sitting at 4-6 and 4th in the NFC North. A lot of it has to do with their division. The Lions would have a shot in a lot of other divisions but between Packers and Bears (both 7-3) and not to mention the Vikings sitting at (6-4), this division is just too much for the Lions to handle right now.

I think that this game isn’t going to be close. The Texans are a much better team than the Lions whos main problem is that they only have one thing going for them, the pass attack (Ranked 1st in the league). The Texans are just too good of a team to let Stafford toss balls up to Calvin Johnson all game and not figure out a way to take away the Lions only offensive weapon. The Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving day game since 2003 and now they play a Super Bowl favorite who only are being given a 3 point favorite? I just have to go with the Texans here.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Marley: Redskins +3
Mitch: Redskins +3
Stefan: Cowboys -3

The Dallas Cowboys are just a terrible dumpster fire right now. I love that they are so predictable because I have been winning bets on them all season long. Like last week against the Browns which was one of more obvious backdoor covers ive seen this season. The Cowboys might have won the last 2 games, but they win ugly, very ugly. This Thanksgiving they couldn’t have a tougher matchup with the Division Rivals Redskins coming to town lead by rookie phenom RGIII. Romo better have a good game plan for this one because somehow even with how bad this team is a win would mean being only .5 games out of first in the NFC East.

The Redskins are currently sneaking up on the Cowboys in the NFC East and still have their playoff hopes alive. A win this week would bring them that much closer to .500 and would also tie them with Dallas. It’s a good race right now as the Redskins have 3 games left against division opponents and if they shape up right now they could make a run for it. A big if, is if their receivers can step up and help out RGIII more. A couple plays and dropped passes have made the difference so far in their losses but RGIII has been incredible his rookie year.

The Cowboys traditionally have a good record playing on Thanksgiving. They are 6-3 since 2003 and right now against division opponents they are 2-1. The problem is that they have not being playing well at all. The Redskins are much better than their record and they are coming after Dallas hard. A win on Thanksgiving just could be the motivation that both of these teams are looking for. A win for Dallas puts them right ontop of the Giants while a win for the Redskins means that they are still in the hunt for the postseason. I like RGIII better than Romo and I think Washington comes away with the points. Redskins cover

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Marley: Patriots -7
Mitch: Patriots -7
Stefan: Patriots -7

The New England Patriots completely dominated the Colts last week but in doing so lost Gronkowski, their best player not named Tom Brady. Now the question remains how will they do without their number 1 receiver and TE TD machine. Last year Gronkowski got hurt right before the Super Bowl and we all saw how that turned out. This year he might be out for the rest of the season. Good thing for the Patriots they get to play against teams like the Jets.

Watching the Jets play is like watching a television series that’s been on for too long. Storylines are repeating themselves, character development just isn’t the same and nothing really grabs you anymore. That’s the 2012 New York Jets. They don’t seem to realize that this isn’t 2009, Mark Sanchez is not an NFL QB, the defense is not that good and Rex Ryan just isn’t that great of a coach. I mean sure…maybe this season youll get surprised by an episode or two that makes you feel good (like beating the bills and rams) and remember how good the show used to be…but everyone knows where the road ends.

Im so glad I managed to jump on the spread while it was still -6 because this game is going to be a blowout. I feel like every year when these teams play each other there has always a close game and there has always a blowout. Well the last time these teams played each other it was close, and here comes the blowout. The Patriots are just that much better as a team and as much as losing Gronk is going to hurt them going forward I don’t think this is the week were it makes a huge different. Patriots should win this one by at least a touchdown. 

Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Marley: Raiders +9.5
Mitch: Bengals -9.5
Stefan: Raiders +9.5

This is a complete toss up game to be honest. The Raiders are getting beat in this one but 9.5 is a lot of points to give the Bengals in this one. They have been playing extremely well since their bye week and it’s completely possible that this game ends up a blowout. But it’s also possible that the Raiders give the Bengals a game here. I think that the Raiders make this closer than 9.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns 
Marley: Browns +1
Mitch: Steelers -1
Stefan: Browns +1

The Steelers are really hurting at the QB position and the Browns are lot better than people give them credit for. They hung in there with the Cowboys last week and I think that they might be able to pull out a victory here. They won’t have a better chance than playing against the Steelers and their 3rd string QB. Browns at home against the battered Steelers

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
Marley: Colts -3
Mitch: Colts -3
Stefan: Colts -3

The Colts were embarrassed last week against the Patriots but I don’t think that it happens two weeks in a row especially against a team like the Buffalo Bills. The Colts should rebound just fine and have a home win against the Bills in this one. I’m curious to see how the rookie responds after receiving that spanking on Sunday.  

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Marley: Broncos – 10.5
Mitch: Broncos -10.5 
Stefan: Broncos -10.5  

The Broncos managed to get through the tough first half schedule they had with a winning record and now as they seem to be getting in the full swing of things they get to play teams like the Chiefs. 10.5 is a lot of points to give someone in the NFL, but they are playing the worst team in the league and Peyton Manning is firing on all cylinders. This spread should be more than 10.5 and the Broncos should cover just fine.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Marley: Jaguars +3
Mitch: Titans -3
Stefan: Jaguars +3

The Jaguars surprised everyone last week and gave one of the top contenders for the Super Bowl a run for their money eventually losing in OT. I think they build on that momentum and with a home game against a hot and cold Titans team it’s entirely possible that they cover and win this game.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marley: Falcons
Mitch: Buccaneers
Stefan: Buccaneers

The Falcons have one of the best records in the NFL but they do not win pretty. All that matters at the end of the day however, is that W come Sunday. They are playing a Bucs team that is on a hot streak lately, quietly winning their last 4 games in a row. The problem I see in this matchup is that the Falcons defense is pretty good and has it in them to stop Freeman and Doug Martin from exploding against them. The Bucs on the other hand as last in the league against the pass letting opposing teams rack up an average of over 300 yards passing. Now they play Matty Ice, Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. If this game ends up being a shoot out they just will not be able to keep up with the Falcons

Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Marley: Seahawks -3
Mitch: Seahawks -3
Stefan: Seahawks -3

The Seahawks are the best tackling team in the league. This team is huge on defense and every week Russell Wilson gets better and better. The Miami Dolphins haven’t been able to do anything for the last couple weeks and just look horrible. I think the Seahawks should definitely be able to go down to Florida and shut down the Dolphins.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
Marley: Ravens
Mitch: Ravens
Stefan: Ravens

The Ravens are the most infuriating team in this league. They can drop 50 points on teams and blow out their competition or they can lay a complete egg. It’s completely unpredictable which Ravens team shows up and the only good news is they are playing a team that is a free fall. If the Chargers lose this week that would most likely be the kill shot for Norv Turner and the Chargers organization. I think the Ravens will be happy to give them just that.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Marley: 49ers
Mitch: 49ers
Stefan: Saints   

Is Colin Kaepernick for real or was last week a fluke? The Nevada QB who has only been featured in the Wildcat for the 49ers got his chance to start and responded by blowing the Bears out of the water. I have for a long time disliked Alex Smith and I honestly just don’t think he’s a good QB and should be a starter. He’s a great game manager but he is not a great QB. All the 49ers need is a game manager like Alex Smith to win and they have been doing pretty well since 2011 with that system. This game will depend on the 49ers ability to stop Drew Brees and the Saints. The 49ers should be able to win this game relying on the defense and letting Kaepernick or Alex Smith manage a balanced attack.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Marley: Cardinals -1
Mitch: Rams +1
Stefan: Cardinals -1

God what a snooze fest of a game. Rams were destroyed last week by the JETS! THE JETS! And before that they were killed by the Patriots. Well bad things come in threes and this week they can expect the same treatment. The Cardinals just don’t lose to teams like this especially in the desert.

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
Marley: Giants -2.5
Mitch: Packers +2.5
Stefan: Packers +2.5

Every bone in my body screams that i am being biased but I honestly think the Giants can win this one. They play to their competition and when they play against teams like Green Bay they generally keep it close. They have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and while they were playing terrible before that, I think they spent the last 2 weeks pumping themselves up and really getting focused to wrap up this season and make another run at the Super Bowl. It starts with a statement win against the Packers at home.

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Marley: Panthers -2.5
Mitch: Panthers -2.5
Stefan: Panthers -2.5

The Eagles suck. It makes me extremely happy to see just how much the Eagles blow this year. Now they lost their best offensive weapon in McCoy. That in itself would probably cripple this team but without their starting QB and just throwing a rookie into the mix behind the Swiss cheese of their O line this is going to be a disaster. Cam Newton desperately needs his confidence back and I think he is about to walk into Philly and beat the Eagles like they owe him money. There is also no advantage to being at home this week for the Eagles because they have the worst fan base in the NFL. No fan base is as quick to turn on they’re own team like Philadelphia is. I’m not only going to take the Panthers to cover, but would also bet that you’ll be able to hear the boos and fire Andy chants raining down by the end of the 1st quarter. 






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