Thursday, October 11, 2012

M & M's NFL Pickz Week 6 - Thursday Edition



You could say this for every year but so far the 2012 – 13 season has just been full of unpredictable amazing games and stories. It has been a great ride so far with replacements refs, holdouts, the ongoing bounty scandal, a decade-old franchise going undefeated, injuries, and, of course, insane comebacks.

Week 5 saw GOTW Adam Maher and Marley with positive records while Mitch took some chances and ended up going 6-8 on the week, a step back from last week. This week we have SportzBroz writer Jason Klau as the GOTW looking to build up on the .500 record. The Klau family has long been involved in the horse racing industry and Jason is no stranger to betting spreads. Let's see how he does.

Current Standings:

Week
Marley
Mitch
Guest
Guest
1
8-8
5-11
8-8
-
2
5-9-2
5-9-2
7-7-2
Danny Klau
3
6-9-1
6-9-1
6-9-1
Chris Krukowski
4
9-6
9-6
8-7
Nick Perez
5
9-5
6-8
8-6
Adam Maher
6
0-0
0-0
0-0
Jason Klau
Total
37-37-3
31-43-3
37-37-3



Drew Brees gets the Week 5 Player of the Week Award for breaking Johnny Unitas´s 42-year-old record of consecutive games with a touchdown. The Saints go into their BYE week this week with a 1-4 record. 

Week 6 Spread:

Home
Away
Spread
Total
Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers
Original Line   Steelers                 -5.5
Current Line      -5.5
42.5
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Original Line   Bengals                    -1
Current Line        -1
44
New York
Jets
Indianapolis Colts
Original Line     Jets                         -3
Current Line        -3
42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kansas City Chiefs
Original Line   Buccaneers              -3
Current Line        -3
40
Atlanta
Falcons
Oakland Raiders
Original Line   Falcons                     -9
Current Line        -9
48.5
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas
Cowboys
Original Line    Ravens                 -3.5
Current Line       -3.5   
44
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit
Lions
Original Line     Eagles                  -4.5 
Current Line       -4.5  
48
Miami
Dolphins
St. Louis
Rams
Original Line    Dolphins               -3.5
Current Line       -3.5 
37.5
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Original Line    Patriots                 -3.5
Current Line       -3.5 
45
Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo
Bills
Original Line   Cardinals               -4.5
Current Line       -4.5
43
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Original Line    Redskins              -1.5
Current Line       -1.5  
--
San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants
Original Line    49ers                     -4.5
Current Line       -4.5   
44.5
Houston
Texans
Green Bay Packers
Original Line   Texans                   -3.5  
Current Line       -3.5   
48
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Original Line   Chargers                  -1
Current Line        -1
49.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

Marley: Steelers -5.5
Mitch: Steelers -5.5
Jason: Steelers -5.5

Marley: This matchup may not be on everybody's radar, besides being the Primetime NFL Network game of the week, but it should be. These two teams in the last couple years have faced off in some great games and they simply do not like each other. This tends to happen with the Steelers as they are historically a ground-and-pound, hit-whoever-we're-playing-right-in-the-mouth kind of team. So far this season the Steelers have been struggling though. They are sitting on a 2-2 record and every part of their game has some questions left to answer -- except for the most important: the QB. 

Yes, Big Ben is having another solid season. Despite an almost non-existent running game (29th in the league), no protection from his offense line and his receivers dropping passes (the Steelers receiving core leads the league in fumbles lost after the catch as well), Ben has the Steelers ranked third in 3rd down conversions, and is ranked third in the league for QB rating, only trailing Alex Smith and Matt Ryan. 

The Steelers are going to need its defense to step up, especially in the holes left by their injured starters, Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley. I think a difference maker for the Steelers will be the D-line who still manages a strong run defense (6th in the league) and the return of Mendenhall.


Rashard Mendenhall had a solid game last week against the Eagles in his 2012 season return. If he can jump start the running game early it would augment the Steelers offensive struggles. 

The Titans to me are a team that this season is just plain unlucky and not playing good football. They have a lot of problems that honestly just seem too large to be overcome. The offensive line is not playing well and this already resulted in a big hit and separated shoulder for their rookie quarterback, Jake Locker. Additionally, even if it’s the O-line's fault, Chris Johnson is not running the ball well…well, actually he looks terrible. Mix a bad O-line with a backup QB and an unproductive running game, and I'll show you a team that can't move the ball. 

This, however, is nothing too new for the Titans. Through the years they have had a lot of offensive changes and low production, but now their usually-strong defense is lacking as well. I will give them credit based on the teams they have played. Even though they sit at 1-4 their losses came against the Patriots, the Chargers, the Texans and the very impressive Vikings. The only game they won was an offensive shootout that easily could have been lost if the Lions didn’t screw up the calls on 4th and 1.


Jake Locker was injured in Week 4 and might return in time to start Week 7. For the moment this keeps the game in the hands of the veteran Matt Hasselbeck. The Titans had a lot of trouble moving the ball in Week 5...can they fix the problems or will it be more of the same?

The Titans just have too many problems to overcome in one week, especially against a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Big Ben is one of the best QBs in the league when it comes to extending plays and exploiting defenses on the scramble. I think this is the Steelers chance to get some confidence back and improve some big areas of their game. The Titans are a sitting duck and the Steelers have them directly in their sights. That being said the Titans need to get their ground game going if they want to have any chance. Chris Johnson ran for over 100 yards against the Texans and if he can get off to a good start tonight, veteran QB Hasselbeck will have time to use his 13 years of experience to try and decode the Steelers defensive packages. But I just don’t see it happening, especially on a short week where the Titans don’t have time to properly prepare for the Steelers. The spread right now is -5.5. Not counting the Lions game, the Titans have lost every game by at least 21 points. I think the Steelers will probably continue that trend.

Check in on Saturday for the rest of M & Ms NFL Picks!

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