Saturday, October 13, 2012

M & M NFL Pickz Week 6 - Sunday/Monday Edition

By Marley Burr (@MarleyBurr), Mitch Sandberg & Jason Klau

You could say this for every year but so far the 2012 – 13 season has just been full of unpredictable amazing games and stories, bro. Replacements refs, holdouts, the ongoing bounty scandal, a decade-old franchise going undefeated, injuries, and, of course, insane comebacks.

Week 5 saw GOTW Adam Maher and Marley with positive records while Mitch took some chances and ended up going 6-8 on the week, a step back from last week. This week we have SportzBroz writer Jason Klau as the GOTW looking to build up on the .500 record. The Klau family has long been involved in the horse racing industry and Jason is no stranger to betting spreads. Let's see how he does.

Current Standings:

Week
Marley
Mitch
Guest
Guest
1
8-8
5-11
8-8
-
2
5-9-2
5-9-2
7-7-2
Danny Klau
3
6-9-1
6-9-1
6-9-1
Chris Krukowski
4
9-6
9-6
8-7
Nick Perez
5
9-5
6-8
8-6
Adam Maher
6
0-0
0-0
0-0
Jason Klau
Total
37-37-3
31-43-3
37-37-3



Drew Brees gets the Week 5 Player of the Week Award for breaking Johnny Unitas´s 42-year-old record of consecutive games with a touchdown. The Saints go into their BYE week this week with a 1-4 record. 

Week 6 Spread:

Home
Away
Spread
Total
Tennessee Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers
Original Line   Steelers                 -5.5
Current Line      -5.5
42.5
Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals
Original Line   Bengals                    -1
Current Line        -1
44
New York
Jets
Indianapolis Colts
Original Line     Jets                         -3
Current Line        -3
42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kansas City Chiefs
Original Line   Buccaneers              -3
Current Line        -3
40
Atlanta
Falcons
Oakland Raiders
Original Line   Falcons                     -9
Current Line        -9
48.5
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas
Cowboys
Original Line    Ravens                 -3.5
Current Line       -3.5   
44
Philadelphia Eagles
Detroit
Lions
Original Line     Eagles                  -4.5 
Current Line       -4.5  
48
Miami
Dolphins
St. Louis
Rams
Original Line    Dolphins               -3.5
Current Line       -3.5 
37.5
Seattle Seahawks
New England Patriots
Original Line    Patriots                 -3.5
Current Line       -3.5 
45
Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo
Bills
Original Line   Cardinals               -4.5
Current Line       -4.5
43
Washington Redskins
Minnesota Vikings
Original Line    Redskins              -1.5
Current Line       -1.5  
--
San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants
Original Line    49ers                     -4.5
Current Line       -4.5   
44.5
Houston
Texans
Green Bay Packers
Original Line   Texans                   -3.5  
Current Line       -3.5   
48
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Original Line   Chargers                  -1
Current Line        -1
49.5




Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns

Marley: Bengals -2
Mitch: Bengals -2
Jason: Bengals -2

Mitch: In a rematch from week two the Browns and Bengals face off once again.  Week two was a high scoring affair ending in a 34-27 win for Cincinnati. Since then, the Bengals have gone 2-1 while the Browns have taken a dive and find themselves as the only 0-5 team in the NFL.  Trent Richardson has been the lone bright spot for the Browns.  Both of these defenses are weak and I expect another high scoring game this weekend with the same result.  Bengals by three in this one.


Trent Richardson so far this year is the Browns best player. Now they have a rematch against the Bengals and are looking for their first win of the season. 

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Marley: Colts +3.5
Mitch: Colts +3.5
Jason: Colts +3.5

Marley: The Indianapolis Colts won an incredible game against the Green Bay Packers at home last weekend thanks to a fourth quarter drive from the rookie QB Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck is the real deal and he proved it by going toe-to-toe with one of the best QBs in the game and winning. He had a stat line of 362 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. If you’re a fan of the Colts you should be feeling pretty good right now because its not just Andrew Luck, the whole team was playing well and they pulled out a big game. The problem right now for the Colts is injuries. They just lost Robert Mathis for a few games as well as Donald Brown which doesn’t help either side of the ball. They do get Dwight Freeney back this week as he participated fully in practice and the good news is that if theres any team you want to play against when you have some key players out, it would be the New York Jets


Mark Sanchez is still under 50% completion on the year. He is going to have to do a lot better if he want to get some more wins for the Jets

The Jets made a lot of gamblers unhappy last weekend by keeping it close with the Houston Texans and only losing by 6 points. Antonio Cromartie played an impressive game and certainly showed that he is up to the challenge of covering the opponents number 1 receiver (Andre Johnson had a whopping 1 reception for 14 yards). This week will be a big challenge as he goes up against the experienced veteran in Reggie Wayne who had an incredible game against the Packers. The Jets pass defense was solid last week however, they had a lot of problem stopping Arian Foster (To be fair every defense has trouble stopping him) and let him rush for over 150 yards on 29 carries. While the score would make it seem as though the Jets were close in reality this game was more of the same. Sanchez did break the 200 yard passing mark and had a TD to boot however he also threw 2 interceptions and the majority of his passing yards came on a few big plays that extended his numbers. He only completed 14 of 31 passes, less than 50% again. The biggest play of the night came from Joe McKnights 100 yard kick return for a touchdown and when your talking about Special Teams being the best unit of your whole team, theres a problem.


Andrew Luck lead the Colts on a game winning drive against the Green Bay Packers

This matchup may be in Metlife Stadium but with how loudly the fans have been Booing the Jets performances and Mark Sanchez lately, this could almost be a home game for the Colts. This is actually a winnable for the Jets this week. The Colts are hurt right now with some key injuries and they are facing a team that relies on the pass attack, something the Jets defense is very good at defending. The main question in this matchup will be can the Jets score points. The offense managed 10 points against the Texans who have one of the best defenses in the league. If Sanchez can finally step up and complete more than 50% of his passes and if the Jets can establish something of a running game then maybe they can get another W on what is surely to be another disappointing season. The Colts however are not going to make that easy. Andrew Luck can play with the best of them, and the best of them the Jets are not. Andrew Luck is going to feel the pressure this game against this defense, but if he can get a touchdown or two that just may be enough thanks to the Jets offensive struggles. I think this is probably the more likely scenario, Colts win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Marley: Chiefs +4.5
Mitch: Buccaneers -4.5
Jason: Buccaneers -4.5

Marley: The Kansas City Chiefs are struggling this year, and how. They are sitting at 1-4 right now and it seems that almost nothing is going right. The big news with the Chiefs this week is obviously the fact the Matt Cassel was knocked out of the game against the Baltimore Ravens. This week, former first round pick Brady Quinn will get the start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and it could go one of two ways. If Quinn can show that he can hit his targets and throw the ball well then it is going to be a very long day for the Bucs. Jamaal Charles has been amazing for Chiefs three weeks in a row and has managed big games against better defenses than the Bucs can put out. This game is in Quinns hands however, because if he cant complete his passes then the Bucs are going to start loading the Box and concentrate exclusively on Charles stopping the run. The defense looked good for the Chiefs last week against the Ravens limiting them to 3 field goals in a 9-6 loss and if they can do it again this week it might be the difference with a different starting QB to get used to on offense


Josh Freeman last year fell into the Sophomore slump which many were hoping he could fall out this year. Hopefully after his bye week Freeman can kick things up a notch

The Tampa Bay Bucs week 5 were on their bye week which means that they have had a lot of time to prepare for the Chiefs. However, the change at quarterback for the Chiefs might have thrown a wrench in their plans as now there are surely changes that are going to be made to make things easier for Brady Quinn. The Bucs are having troubles of their own sitting at 1-3 and have been underachieving this season. The big key to this game for the Bucs is Josh Freeman and Vincent Jackson. Freeman has been having a rough season and the lack of a running game has not been helping at all. This week he has a chance to start over the rest of the season after his bye week and really open up through the air. He has one of the best receivers out there with Vincent Jackson who has already managed 100 yard receiving games twice. Well see what he can do


Brady Quinn the former first round pick of the Cleveland Browns gets his chance to start for the Chiefs this week following the injury to Matt Cassel. This is his rarely obtained second chance to be a starting NFL QB. 

This game is an absolute snoozfest with two bottom of the table teams going at each other. This game has low scoring ending with a field goal written all over it and personally I think your insane if your betting on this game. However, if you have to bet I think the running game and defense of the Chiefs can beat out the Bucs and the fact that the spread is over a field goal in this case im going to take the team with the points. Chiefs 4.5 should make it close enough even if they lose to win the spread bet.

Oakland Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons

Marley: Oakland +10.5
Mitch: Oakland +10.5
Jason: Falcons -10.5

Mitch: The Falcons are 5-0 but haven't looked like a 5-0 team.  They were far from impressive when they played the Panthers a couple weeks ago and may have lost to the Redskins if RG3 hadn't been knocked out of the game.  Matt Ryan has played great throughout the season but the Falcons running game has been dismal and doesn't look to be improving.  Oakland is coming off of a bye week and although 1-3 have looked better each week.  This line is far too high for the Falcons to cover, as they take quarters off after taking a lead.  Falcons win but don't cover.


Matt Ryan has lead the Falcons to 5-0 for the first time in franchise history. Can they make it 6?

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

Marley: Ravens -3.5
Mitch: Ravens -3.5
Jason: Ravens -3.5

Jason: The Baltimore Ravens are coming off of a sloppy game against the chiefs. A 9-6 win is characteristic of their D, but not so much of their offense. Joe Flacco needs to find a way to reconnect with Torrey Smith and get the air game going again. The ground game however, is still as strong as ever. Ray Rice is as consistent of a back as you’ll find that is not named Arian Foster (I’ll get to him later). He should also have the opportunity to take a lot of snaps. Before the bye week, Dallas QB Tony Romo was picked off a whopping 5 times against a rugged Bears D. Now, they have to face another tough matchup. Ray “I ain’t kill no Mufasa” Lewis and the Ravens D are going to make it a tough day for Romo. They forced 4 turnovers against KC and they aren’t about to stop here. The Cowboys D might be able to make it hard on the Ravens offense, but if the Ravens D can force turnovers and keep them on the field, eventually they’ll crack. I expect a win, in hand, for the Ravens.


Ray Lewis is still the scariest linebacker in football after 17 years of his pro career. The Ravens are undefeated at home going all the way back to last year. Now they host the Cowboys with their struggling QB Tony Romo. 

Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles

Marley: Lions +3.5
Mitch: Lions +3.5
Jason: Eagles -3.5

Marley: The Eagles…I don’t know how many weeks now have screwed me on bets. Last week I was positive they would lose and lose they did but they still managed to beat the spread and lose by 2 points. Lets recap, they beat the Browns by 1, the Ravens by 1, got destroyed by the cardinals, beat the Giants by 2, lost to the Steelers by 2. Vick took a week off fumbling the football when he played the Giants but returned to bad form last week with another couple fumbles against the Steelers. Week in and out I am not impressed at all with the Eagles and they have a tough matchup this week against the Lions.


Michael Vick has been having a lot of trouble holding onto the football. The only game he didn't create turnovers in was against the Giants. He will have to play like he did that week if he wants to outscore the Lions and their dynamic offense 

The Lions are coming off a bye week after a disappointing start to their season. The biggest question mark this team has is the defense. This team has given up 20 points or more every week this year and let the Titans rack up 44 in week 3. They have to be better then that. The lions are much better than their record and going into week 6 they have a chance to bounce back against the Eagles. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are still who everyone thought they were constantly connecting for big plays and touchdowns. This team can score and everyone knows it, but they need to stop the other team from doing the same if they want to win.


The Eagles will need to do everything they can to stop Calvin "Megatron" Johnson from getting his usually 100+ yards receiving with a couple touchdowns this Sunday

The Eagles (aside from week 3) have won or lost every game by 1 or 2 points. Giving them 3.5 points here is almost a no brainer especially considering that the underdog here is a high powered offensive team that has had 2 weeks to prepare for this team. Also considering that the Eagles let the Steelers (one of the worst rushing teams in the league) run for 100+ and Big Ben throw for 220 on them I think that Stafford, Johnson and Leshoure can do much better. Lions should win this game outright.

St. Louis Rams @ Miami Dolphins

Marley: Rams +4
Mitch: Miami -4
Jason: Rams +4

Jason: Miami is favored in this matchup but I’m going to go the other way. Danny Amendola is a huge loss for the Rams though. The underrated receiver has been itching for his breakout for a few seasons, but injury problems have nagged him. It will be hard to replace him, but that task falls on the untested Brandon Gibson. Bradford’s numbers were pretty ugly last week, but there were a few perfectly thrown long balls that his receivers couldn’t haul in, including the play that injured Amendola. Bradford is a talented QB, the pieces just have to fall into place.


Dolphins had a big win against the Bengals and Reggie Bush is looking to get back into form against the Rams potent defense. 

The Rams D is strong, but Miami is also strong at stopping the run. Steven Jackson has struggled after an injury, and Reggie Bush didn’t have a great game. If you factor out the 13 yard TD run against the Bengals, he gained 35 yards on 18 carries. Both teams are going to have to get it done in the air, and don’t expect Dolphins WR Brian Hartline to put up a 250 yard game again. The Dolphins haven’t been very consistent and have lacked the finishing power. I’m going to pick the Rams, in a low scoring game.

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

Marley: Patriots -3.5
Mitch: Patriots +3.5
Jason: Patriots -3.5

Marley: The New England Patriots are finally coming around after a very strange and uncharacteristic start to the season. With a couple of wins now they go to Seattle to take on the very overrated Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks plain and simple are not as good as their record dictates and this week they are going to get a tough lesson in football against the New England Patriots. It only took Tom Brady a few weeks to get into his stride but now that he’s in it there is no looking back. The Patriots are looking dangerous this year as they do every year. Tom Brady is throwing extremely well, Aaron Hernandez is on his way back, Wes Welker is getting a lot of catches, and surprise, surprise they have a running back now. And that’s just the offense. The defense has been playing much better than last year and people seem to forget this team went to the Super Bowl.


Wes Welker had a great game last week against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Now on the road in Seattle he hopes he can build on the last couple weeks and that the dark emperor wont limit his catches due to his post game comments

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals

Marley: Cardinals -4.5
Mitch: Bills +4.5
Jason: Cardinals -4.5

Mitch: Arizona is 4-1, yet it is a very unimpressive 4-1, especially scoring only three points last week against a very average Rams team.  The Cardinals seem to look worse each week and Kevin Kolb is far from earning his expensive paychecks.  The Bills are a team that either shows up or doesn't, but I have a feeling that after their embarrassing performance against the 49ers last week, scoring only three points, the better Bills team will show up in Phoenix this weekend and cover against an overrated Arizona squad.


CJ Spiller has proven himself that he will most likely be the future of the Buffalo Bills Running game. The Cardinals must stop him if they want to limit the Bills offense any

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins

Marley: Vikings +1.5
Mitch: Vikings +1.5
Jason: Vikings +1.5

Jason: It’s hard to know what is going to happen in this game, especially with RG III’s status not set in stone after his concussion last week. And even if he can play, is the close call going to affect his game? Is he going to be more cautious rushing the ball? Washington is favored in this game, and for them to achieve that, they not only need RG III to be his normal self, but RB Alfred Morris must continue his impressive play as well. But if RG III is out, will he have the same kind of room to make plays, if teams aren’t building their offense around Griffin’s rushing ability? For the Vikings, it will be essential for QB Christian Ponder to get the passing game going. The Redskins have given up a lot of touchdowns through the air, and I’m sure Percy Harvin is chomping at the bit to get into the endzone. If speedster/acrobat Jerome Simpson can be healthy enough to play, he could be a deep threat the Vikings need to exploit a shaky Redskins Secondary. Washington let Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez have a big game and Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph is playing well right now. And you can’t forget about AP. Washington is favored but I have to go with the Vikings.


RGIII was forced to leave the game with concussion symptoms against the Falcons early. Yet he was cleared early this week and has practiced. How will it affect him going forward?

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers

Marley: Giants +6.5
Mitch: 49ers -6.5
Jason: Giants +6.5

Marley: This could go either way. The Giants are a team that for as long as I can remember now plays to their competition. Its infuriating because they can play against teams like Green Bay and the 49ers on the road and win but can host the Seahawks and let Charlie Whitehurst run all over them in the regular season. This season has completely changed that about them as they are 1 made field goal away from being on a 4 game winning streak that includes a big comeback at home and blowing away lesser competition. This team looks like they are really getting into their stride right now and this week will be the big test. I think this game is a trap for the 49ers. The Giants and 49ers faced each other last year in Candlestick and the game was decided by a pair of costly fumbles and a field goal to win by the Giants. There is no reason to think this matchup wont be along the same lines. The 49ers are feeling really confident right now after shutting down the Jets and Bills…but that was the Jets and the Bills. They have had relatively easy competition 2 weeks in a row and I think the Giants are itching to get into this game and take down one of the Super Bowl favorites at home. Watch out San Fran the Gmen are coming.


The last time these two teams met the Giants came out on top thanks to this forced fumble and a late field goal. This will be an exciting matchup against two sure to be playoff teams

Mitch: The 49ers have played well lately, giving up a combined three points in their last two games.  Other than the one flop against the Vikings in week three the Niners have looked like the best team in the NFL along with the Texans. In the last two weeks the Niners have started going downfield and it has really helped their offense, scoring 34 against the Jets two weeks ago and then 45 last week against the Bills.  The Niners are a team that plays well with the lead, and thus they will be looking to grab a lead early and keep it this week
The Giants have started slow in the past couple of weeks, and going against a Niners team that doesn't give up leads once it has them, I expect the Niners to take an early lead and run with it, especially with the way San Francisco's defense has played lately.  I see San Francisco winning this one by at least a touchdown, if not more.

Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans
Marley: Texans -3.5
Mitch: Texans -3.5
Jason: Texans -3.5

Jason: Houston is favored and it is because of one man. Arian Foster, the workhorse in the Houston backfield. Against a struggling Jets run D, Foster put up 100 yards in the first half alone. Green Bay, while not struggling as bad as the Jets, hasn’t been very strong in that regard, and Foster will hope to repeat that performance against the Packers, who just had Donald Brown put up strong numbers against them. Green Bay will not be able to equal the run game. Cedric Benson is hurt, and although Alex Green put up respectable numbers but they were lopsided with one long 41 yard run. Sure, it takes skill to make that run but against a tough Houston D, I doubt they will give a ground game any chance. Green Bay spends most of their time throwing the ball anyway. The Texans D is coming off a strong game, where they made Mark Sanchez look, well, very Mark Sanchezesque. Matt Schaub is going to have to throw the ball better, but Green Bay just let up a big game to Colts WR Reggie Wayne, and Andre Johnson is going to look to rebound with a performance of his own, as he’s been blanketed by every team he’s faced. Green Bay is winless on the road, and Houston is undefeated this season. My bet, it stays that way


 Arian Foster can run wild on anyone as he did last week against the Jets. Green Bays defense has struggled but facing an offensive juggernaut like the Houston Texans will not help. 

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Marley: Broncos +1
Mitch: Broncos +1
Jason: Broncos +1

Mitch:  San Diego looks like typical San Diego, having good games and then turning around to lose to a bad New Orleans team last week, granted on a horrible call; either way it should not have been that close.  Peyton Manning and the Broncos have looked slightly better offensively the past couple of weeks and I feel that he is developing more chemistry with his wide receivers, which is an absolute must, especially with Manning as their quarterback.  I look for this game to be very close, with the Broncos edging out San Diego in the fourth quarter.


Peyton Manning had a good game against the Patriots last week but still fell short. Now he gets to play the monday night game in San Diego. Will he fall short again?

2 comments:

  1. I'm liking the looks of these picks, Jason. Team GOTW till I die!

    ReplyDelete
  2. well that didn't go too well

    ReplyDelete